Fremtidsfrykt gir grobunn for AfD

Denne artikkelen ble publisert som kronikk i Aftenposten 20.10.2017

 

”Integrer oss først!”, sier innbyggerne i det gamle DDR. Manglende jobbsikkerhet, aldersfattigdom og flyktningstrøm forklarer fremgangen for tysk høyrepopulisme.

 

Den store fremgangen til Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) ved forbundsdagsvalget i høst har forskrekket tyskerne. Politikkens mantra siden 1945 har vært at det ikke skal være noe parti i Forbundsdagen til høyre for det kristlig-konservative folkepartiet CDU/CSU. Nå har AfD rykket inn i Forbundsdagen med mange representanter. Det skremmer tyskerne, politikere så vel som media og menigmann.

AfD-oppslutningen er uttrykk for en protest, en mistro til de bestående partiene, blant annet deres innvandringspolitikk og særlig sosialpolitikken. I motsetning til i Frankrike dreier det seg ikke om å skaffe flere jobber. Tysklands økonomi går på høygir og det skapes nye jobber hele tiden. Heller ikke er det et uttrykk for motstand mot Europa og euro. Flere meningsmålinger har vist at det store flertallet av tyskere, også de unge, slutter fullt og helt opp om EU og euroen.

Fremtidsfrykt og øst/vest

Problemet er usikkerhet. Usikre jobber og frykt for fremtiden – for ikke å kunne klare seg på en mager pensjon. Innvandringen – flyktningestrømmen som toppet seg for to år siden og utfordringene med å integrere flyktninger og innvandrere – har forsterket utryggheten og følelsen av sosial urettferdighet.

Det er de samme problemene som har skapt protestpartier eller ført til protestvalg i andre europeiske land og i USA: arbeidsmarkedet, innvandring, terrorismefrykt, by kontra land. I tillegg har Tyskland et øst-vest-problem, forskjeller mellom de ”gamle” og de ”nye” delstatene. Mangel på jobb er ikke problemet, arbeidsløsheten har aldri vært så lav siden gjenforeningen. Men hva slags jobber er det som skapes?

Manglende jobbsikkerhet

Annenhver nye jobb i Tyskland i dag er en midlertidig jobb. Unge mennesker går fra den ene kortvarige jobben – minijobb – til den andre. Mange har aldri hatt fast arbeid eller arbeid av noe varighet. Merkel-generasjonen tror ikke slike finnes, har akseptert at slik er det. Og det ville jo være pinglete å klage, ikke sant? Tyskland går jo så det suser. Men hver femte pensjonist vil om 15 år være truet av fattigdom – aldersarmod – ifølge flere kjente forskningsinstitutter. De som vil være særlig utsatt for fattigdom, er kvinner, mennesker uten yrkesutdanning, og de som har vært langtidsarbeidsløse.

Det folk krever, er fast jobb, bedre lønn og høyere pensjon. AfD-velgere er verken nazister eller fascister. Antakelig ikke mer rasister enn du og jeg. De er ikke opptatt av ideologi. De er protestvelgere som har skallet av fra alle de andre partiene. Det dreier seg helt enkelt om økonomi. Forskningen viser at AfD-velgere har langt lavere inntekt enn de som stemmer CDU/CSU og Grünen, en god del lavere enn SPD-velgerne, og til og med noe lavere enn de som stemmer Linke.

Integreringen koster

Selvfølgelig har flyktningbølgen for to år siden hatt en betydning for protestvalget. Ved siden av en enorm velkomstvilje hvor folk gikk mann av huse for å ta imot og hjelpe flyktningene, har det også oppstått frykt og misnøye. Tyskland tok imot en million flyktninger som skal integreres. Det koster penger. Penger som mange synes burde vært brukt på dem i utgangspunktet. Selv om objektive sosiale og økonomiske ulikheter ser ut til å være den ene grunnen til oppslutningen om AfD, er en like viktig grunn den subjektive oppfatningen av en urettferdig situasjon. Mange, særlig i delstatene i øst, føler seg urettferdig behandlet og satt utenfor. De føler seg nedgradert og nedvurdert i den nye forbundsrepublikken. 27 år etter gjenforeningen ser de at mange forventninger er gjort til skamme. Innbyggerne føler at de er blitt glemt midt oppe i asylpolitikk og integrering. ”Integrer oss først”, sier de. I Berlin ytre øst har bydelsadministrasjonene i alle år måttet spinke og spare. ”Det har ikke vært råd til noen ting”, sier folk der, ”men så bygger de et asylmottak til 10 millioner euro.”

”Østtyskerne” føler seg glemt

Selv om AfD ”bare” oppnådde 12 prosent i Berlin som helhet, hadde partiet en oppslutning på over 20 prosent i de østligste bydelene, et resultat på linje med de andre delstatene i øst, disse ”nye” delstatene som tidligere var DDR. I alle disse delstatene lå AfD-resultatet på fra litt under 20 prosent til nesten 30.

Her er vi inne på det spesielt tyske problemet: øst-vest-problematikken. Innbyggerne i de østlige delstatene har mye lavere inntekt og pensjon enn i vest. Industrien er så godt som radert bort. Tusenvis av bedrifter ble stengt i kjølvannet av gjenforeningen i 1990 og 2,5 millioner mennesker mistet arbeidet. De måtte omskoleres, fikk stort sett nytt arbeid, som kanskje bare varte i en kort stund – det har vært helt normalt å skifte jobb 3-4 ganger eller mer. De jobbene de etter hvert fikk, er usikre, midlertidige jobber.

Lav arbeidsløshet, stor aldersarmod

Slike ansettelsesforhold fører til store ”hull” i jobb-biografien, som gir en pensjon det ikke går av å leve av – aldersarmod er allerede et reelt problem i øst. Den totale sysselsettingen har gått tilbake 10 prosent i de østlige delstatene siden 2000. Men arbeidsløsheten har samtidig sunket svært mye og ligger nå, med et snitt på 6 prosent, bare litt over landet som helhet. Det skyldes vel, litt kynisk betraktet, at det rett og slett ikke er flere igjen der som kan være arbeidsløse. De unge og de velutdannede har forsvunnet til bedre betalte jobber i vest, de eldre er blitt pensjonister eller trygdemottakere og teller ikke lenger med i statistikken over arbeidsløse.

AfD-velgerne frykter fremtiden

Svært mange mennesker frykter fremtiden, og blant dem er det særlig mange AfD-velgere. De er redd for terrorisme og kriminalitet, og for aldersfattigdom. Mange som har arbeidet hele livet vil likevel ikke ha opptjent en pensjon de kan leve av. Ekstra pensjon utover den statlige og lovpålagte er det få som har, bedriftspensjonsordninger er ikke obligatoriske, og de færreste har råd til egen pensjonssparing. ”Jeg blir egentlig pensjonist i høst”, sa en drosjesjåfør til meg, ”men jeg kommer til å fortsette å jobbe. Jeg har ikke råd til å pensjonere meg med 800 euro i måneden å leve av.” Det er langt fra alle som opplever Merkels valgspråk ”For et Tyskland hvor vi lever godt og gjerne” som sant og riktig for dem.

 

Analysen trekker på forskning fra anerkjente forskningsinstitutter som DIW (Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) og Böckler-Stiftung, referert i aviser som Berliner Zeitung, Tagesspiegel og Die Zeit.

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